Somalia’s Natural Resources
The rush to monetise the country’s natural resources at the wrong time could plunge Somalia into new depths of anarchy. This is why the blindingly obvious solution could precisely lead to the wrong outcome.
Somalia’s natural resources can put the country on a road to prosperity or lead it down the path to more corruption and repression. They can release desperately needed investments that turn the country around, or fuel an eco-system of endless new wars. They can support Somalia’s political development or sustain and perpetuate a rotten and corrupt political system.
The location of natural resources also heavily influences the priorities for political control. It largely explains the tussle we see today between Somalia’s Federal Government and the Maamul Goboleed. Given the pressing need for investments in Somalia’s reconstruction, schools and hospitals, the ability to exploit the country’s natural resources quickly and safely – be it its strategic ports, minerals, fisheries or petroleum - may be seen as the blindingly obvious solution.
However, in the absence of credible reforms of the county’s government and institutions, the government’s rush to monetise is ill-timed, dangerous and will add to the country’s misfortunes. What may appear to be the blindingly obvious solution could indeed plunge the country into new depths of anarchy.
"When it comes to the exploitation of natural resources, the slip road between anarchy and good development is jarred and narrow as many countries found out to their cost. Good leaders understand the mistakes other countries made in past to anticipate what it means for their country's future. The tragedy for the people of Somalia is that the current Somali leaders are more skilled at predation than state building. "
Another stimulus to corruption
Much of Somalia’s superficial natural resources legislative processes have been framed around the interests of foreign governments and large, some obscure, corporates, focusing on a quick fire- sale for interested parties. Important sources of corruption and resource exploitation risks have been left deliberately unmitigated. Somalia basic regulatory processes, far from being the shield against corruption and mismanagement of natural resources, are indeed stimulus to it.
Somalia does not have an independent Auditor General (the incumbent is appointed by the president). There is no sleaze watchdog that can investigate corruption and mismanagement of public funds. Political cronies in government insitutions vastly outnumber those of good integrity or competence. Somalia sustained its unedifying position as the world’s most corrupt country in Transparency International’s most recent assessment. The absence of the deterring effects of credible laws and enforcement agencies mean the country's institutions of government have ossified and are unfit for purpose.
Somalia is also a country that does not operate with a full degree of territorial independence. It is a playground for foreign countries that have scores to settle, resources to loot or economic and national security interests to protect. The country is still struggling with rampant terrorism that has largely confined the government to parts of Muqdishu. The city has been under government blockade for over a year and there has been no solution to the chronic insecurity that pervades. The then prime minister fell ostensibly on the grounds of incompetence and his inability to build a cohesive political and security framework during his time in office.
Of course, the Somali government is also one that is free from the constraints of the rule of law or democratic oversight, and does not have to answer to voters. Its parliament moonlights for many sides and has long ceased to be a credible check on the Executive.
All of this means the country’s international legal existence gives those in government the opportunity to strike deals with anyone willing to pay for it, even if those deals may prove costly for Somalia in the longer-term or pose existential threat to the country’s sovereignty. As a consequence, the country’s natural resources have become the ultimate quid pro quo for the politician of the day. The ingredients to corruption that will feed anarchy all start here.
Significant resource predation risks
The lack of clear accountability in public office is often the consequence of the absence of personal integrity in politics. Understanding the critical importance of protecting the resources of one’s country is a mark of good integrity and leadership maturity. When personal greed and hunger for political office become more important than good leadership and state building, a country’s natural resources become the keys to one’s wealth and ticket to corrupt political office. Leaders that choose this route tip their countries into the depths of anarchy. Evidence of this is everywhere: just look at the countries where the resource curse has struck with a vengeance.
In this context, the Somali government’s recent announcement about the monetisation of the country’s natural resources risks becoming another brazen attempt at predation. The inherent legal and constitutional anomalies besides, it is a purposive effort to quicken the pace of auctioning of the country’s resources at the worst possible moment during which the political system is in disarray, there is no government with a mandate, no institutions of government and no chance of public scrutiny. In the absence of a functioning government, rule of law and clear accountability in public office, this decision to monetise could lead to anarchy where fighting for profits becomes the new civil war. It is an ugly and dangerous scramble that will have serious consequences for Somalia.
Nigeria's Oil Block OPL 245 corruption saga that ensnared major oil corporations and still rumbling is an important reminder of what can happen when a country’s natural resources become personal property. Somalia’s current approach bears uncanny parallels to what happened to Nigeria.
Politicians skilled at predation than state building
Just over a decade ago, a Somali government minister signed a little understood Memorandum of Understanding document in relation to the delimitation of the Continental Shelf between Somalia and Kenya. Kenya’s strategic and deliberate inclusion of an “s” in one of the words in the legal document almost robbed Somalia of a great portion of its territory, resulting in an eight-year legal wrangle that is still dragging on at the International Court of Justice.
Lessons were never learnt. Today, Somalia has no parliament in the generally understood meaning of the term, no independent judiciary and no anti-corruption laws. Over the years, the government has been party to numerous bilateral and trilateral agreements, covering everything from Somalia’s sea ports, fisheries, minerals to petroleum, defence and economic access. No one knows the extent of these give-aways or what it means for country, nor has anyone been able to quantify the impact on the country’s sovereignty or the liability risks future generations of Somalis will assume in the decades to come.
When it comes to the exploitation of natural resources, the slip road between anarchy and good development is jarred and narrow as many countries found out to their cost. Good leaders understand the mistakes other countries made in past to anticipate what it means for their country's future. The tragedy for the people of Somalia is that the current Somali leaders are more skilled at predation than state building.
It will not end well for Somalia.
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The personal views, thought and opinions expressed in the text belong sorely to the author, and not necessarily to the author’s employer, organisation or other group or individual.
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